Cox Automotive’s 2026 outlook projects a moderate slowdown in the U.S. auto market, with new-vehicle sales expected at 15.8 million, down 2.4% from 2025. While 2025 outperformed expectations, 2026 is expected to be stable but softer across most major metrics.

Key economic forces shaping the market

• Uneven consumer conditions: Higher-income buyers benefit from wealth gains and rate cuts, while lower-income consumers remain pressured by inflation and high vehicle prices, driving more “trade-down” behavior.
• Fragmented labor market: GDP grows without strong job gains, dampening confidence for big purchases like vehicles.
• Interest rates and Fed uncertainty: Slowing inflation and rate cuts help, but policy uncertainty adds volatility.
• Policy and EV transition: Shifting industrial policy, tariff dynamics, and USMCA renegotiation create uncertainty; EVs enter a new phase with fewer incentives and more used EVs coming off lease.
• AI impact: AI boosts productivity and dealership efficiency, but there is risk if investment diverts too much from core R&D.

2026 market expectations

• New-vehicle sales: 15.8 million (-2.4% year over year)
• Retail new-vehicle sales: down 1.5%; fleet sales down 6.1%
• Leasing: EV and plug-in hybrid lease share declines to 21% (down 3 percentage points)
• Retail used-vehicle sales: slight decline as affordability pressures persist
• Wholesale values: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index expected to rise about 2% by year-end, reflecting normal depreciation trends

Overall, Cox Automotive sees 2026 as slower but still healthy, with modest declines potentially softened by improving interest rates and stronger tax refunds early in the year.