Global oil markets are expected to ease through 2026 as inventories build and production rises, leading to lower prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts Brent crude to average $62 per barrel in late 2025 and $52 in 2026, reflecting a sharp drop from recent highs. Production growth will be driven mainly by non-OPEC+ countries, while OPEC+ gradually lifts earlier output cuts. U.S. crude production is projected to remain near record highs at 13.5 million barrels per day, sustained by steady Gulf of Mexico output.

Although fuel demand continues to rise, slower economic growth in China and Europe and efficiency gains are tempering price pressures. Retail fuel prices in the U.S. are expected to trend lower, with diesel averaging between $1.95 and $2.34 per gallon and regular gasoline ranging from $2.75 to $3.05 per gallon through 2026.