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New-Vehicle Sales Poised for a Slower Start and a More Subdued 2026

January 2026 new-vehicle sales are expected to start the year slower than both January last year and December, with SAAR forecast at about 15.3 million, down from 15.5 million a year ago and December’s revised 16.1 million. While year-over-year sales volume is projected to rise 3.2%, the increase is largely due to an extra selling day rather than stronger demand. Month-over-month sales are expected to drop sharply, a typical seasonal pattern for January.

Market softness from late 2025 is carrying into early 2026, driven by the expiration of EV tax credits, high vehicle prices, and ongoing economic uncertainty. Severe winter weather in January is also likely to suppress dealership traffic. Some short-term relief may come from tax refund season, as larger-than-usual refunds could encourage delayed purchases.

Looking ahead, Cox Automotive forecasts 2026 new-vehicle sales to decline to 15.8 million units from an estimated 16.3 million in 2025, reflecting slower economic growth, weaker job creation, and reduced incentives, pointing to a more subdued auto market overall.

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