New Vehicle Sales Remain Resilient Despite Economic Headwinds
The U.S. new-vehicle market continues to show surprising resilience as June sales are expected to finish at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of approximately 16.1 million units, consistent with the previous three months. While first-half sales are projected to finish 3.6% below 2025 levels, demand has remained steady despite higher interest rates, elevated fuel prices, and ongoing economic uncertainty. Affordability continues to be the biggest challenge for consumers, driven more by higher household expenses and financing costs than vehicle pricing. Cox Automotive expects the market to remain relatively stable through the rest of 2026, maintaining its full-year forecast of 15.8 million new-vehicle sales.
For fleets, the market remains competitive, with several manufacturers seeing notable shifts in momentum. General Motors is expected to retain the sales lead through the first half of the year, although Toyota continues to close the gap thanks to strong demand for redesigned models and its expanding hybrid lineup. Hyundai and Stellantis are also gaining market share, while Ford and Tesla are projected to post meaningful year-over-year declines. Fleet sales are forecast to reach approximately 2.9 million units in 2026, slightly below last year but improved from earlier expectations. With financing costs remaining elevated and affordability still a concern, fleet operators should continue planning acquisitions early while monitoring manufacturer incentives, production schedules, and vehicle availability.
Illinois Tollway Proposes Major Capital Plan and Commercial Toll Increase
The Illinois Tollway has unveiled its proposed Driving Connections capital program, a 15-year, $26.5 billion investment plan designed to modernize and expand the state's tollway system between 2027 and 2042. The proposal includes roadway reconstruction, congestion relief projects, system expansion, and ongoing maintenance to improve mobility across northern Illinois. To help fund these investments, the Tollway is proposing its first rate increase in more than a decade, including an approximately 30% increase for commercial vehicle tolls and a 45-cent increase per toll for passenger vehicles. The proposal also includes biennial toll adjustments tied to inflation through the Consumer Price Index. Public comments and hearings are scheduled through early August before any final decision is made.
AI Chip Demand Adds New Cost Pressure for Automakers
The rapid growth of artificial intelligence is creating a new supply chain challenge for the auto industry, as automakers now compete directly with tech giants for memory chips used in today’s advanced vehicles. DRAM chips are needed for features like infotainment systems, digital displays, over-the-air updates, driver-assistance technology, and future autonomy. As AI companies buy up massive volumes of memory for data centers, DRAM prices have surged, with spot prices reportedly rising about 450% from September 2025 to January 2026. Major automakers including Honda, GM, and Ford have already pointed to semiconductor and DRAM costs as a meaningful financial headwind.