Market conditions are sending mixed signals for fleets. Demand is holding steady, supported by strong tax refunds and improved credit access, which is helping keep wholesale vehicle values firm during the spring season. However, inventory financing and replacement decisions may get more complex as lenders take on more risk—subprime lending is rising, loan terms are stretching longer, and negative equity has reached record highs. While credit is easier to access, it’s coming with growing caution beneath the surface.

At the same time, cost pressures are building. The Middle East conflict is pushing up energy prices, driving a sharp increase in producer costs that will likely flow down to fuel and operating expenses in the coming months. On the risk side, auto loan defaults have climbed to their highest level since 2010, even though delinquencies remain relatively stable. For fleet operators, the takeaway is clear: expect higher operating costs ahead and keep a close eye on financial risk as both fuel prices and credit conditions shift.