U.S. Auto Sales Set to Dip in October as EV Demand Falls After Tax Credit Expiration
U.S. new-vehicle sales in October 2025 are projected to cool after a strong third quarter, with Cox Automotive forecasting a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.7 million—down from 16.4 million in September and 16.1 million a year ago. Total sales volume is expected to reach about 1.3 million units, a 3% year-over-year decline but up 2.7% from last month. The slowdown is largely attributed to falling electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales following the expiration of federal $7,500 tax credits.
After a record-breaking third quarter—when EV sales surged 40.7% from Q2 and 29.6% year-over-year to 438,487 units—analysts expect demand to contract sharply as incentives disappear and vehicle prices rise due to tariff impacts. Cox Automotive projects full-year new-vehicle sales between 15.8 million and 16.4 million units, with a baseline estimate of 16.1 million. The firm also expects lower EV leasing rates but modest gains in used and certified pre-owned vehicle sales.
Mixed Provincial Results Mark Canada’s September 2025 New Vehicle Sales Growth
In September 2025, Canadian new light vehicle sales reached an estimated 163,000 units, up 3.7% from September 2024, with year-to-date sales rising 4.5% to 1.47 million units. Provincial results were mixed: British Columbia, Alberta, and PEI saw modest declines of 2.8%, 1.2%, and 0.8%, while Saskatchewan and Newfoundland posted strong gains of 12.7% and 12.0%, and Ontario outperformed the national average with a 7.7% increase. Year-to-date, British Columbia was essentially flat at +0.1% and Quebec was similarly soft at +0.4%, while the Atlantic region continued to run well ahead of the national market.
2026 RAV4 HEV & PHEV – Ordering Update
2026 RAV4 HEV & PHEV