Global Oil Prices Expected to Decline as Production Rises Through 2026
Global oil market conditions are projected to ease through 2026 as inventories rise and production expands, leading to lower prices. The EIA forecasts Brent crude to average around $62 per barrel in late 2025 and $52 in 2026, reflecting a notable drop from recent highs. Most of the production growth will come from non-OPEC+ countries, while OPEC+ members gradually increase output as previous cuts are lifted. In the U.S., crude oil production is expected to remain near record levels at about 13.5 million barrels per day, driven by consistent output from the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, gasoline and diesel prices are likely to stabilize at lower levels, though OPEC+’s production discipline may slow the decline.
EV Sales Hit Record High in Q3 2025, but Challenges Loom Ahead
U.S. electric vehicle (EV) sales surged to an all-time high in the third quarter of 2025, reaching 438,487 units sold — up 40.7% from Q2 and nearly 30% year over year, according to Kelley Blue Book. EVs captured a record 10.5% of total vehicle sales, up from 8.6% a year earlier. The strong performance was largely driven by the end of federal EV incentives, which spurred consumers and dealers to act quickly. While brands like Volkswagen, General Motors, Honda, and Hyundai posted significant gains, others — including Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, and Nissan — saw stagnant or declining sales. Tesla recorded an 8% year-over-year increase, its first of 2025, but its market share fell to 41% from 49% as competition intensified.
Shifting Trends Define Canada’s Light Vehicle Market in Q3
In the third quarter, the Canadian light vehicle market experienced several notable shifts at the segment level. The subcompact car segment, which had shown significant growth in the first half of the year, saw sales decline by 33.7% in Q3. This pullback caused the segment to fall out of the top three year-to-date performers from a percentage growth perspective. In contrast, the intermediate car segment showed a remarkable turnaround, with sales rising 43.3% during the quarter, driven by strong performances from the Toyota Prius and Camry after a weak start to the year.