The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 205.0 in mid-November, reflecting a 1.1% increase in wholesale used-vehicle prices from October, though values remain 0.2% below levels from November 2024. This gain contrasts with the long-term trend, as November typically sees a 0.6% seasonal decline. Non-adjusted prices, however, fell 0.5% month over month and are down 0.2% year over year, showing some softening after elevated depreciation in October. According to Jeremy Robb, Cox Automotive’s Interim Chief Economist, early November brought more moderate pricing trends and a slightly improved retail sales pace, aided by lower auto loan rates, which dropped roughly 30 basis points. He notes that depreciation typically stabilizes in December and that higher-than-usual spring tax refunds could drive early dealer demand.

MMR metrics show relatively stable conditions: three-year-old MMR prices declined 1.0%, slightly better than the typical 1.2% drop for this time of year. MMR retention averaged 99.1%, just above October but slightly below last year, while sales conversion improved to 56.5%, indicating seasonally normal buyer interest amid tight inventory driven by fewer lease maturities. Year over year, overall market prices have slipped 0.2%, though luxury vehicles and EVs continue to outperform, offsetting declines in compact and mid-size cars. EV values remain relatively strong, with the EV Index up 4.3% year over year, while non-EV values declined marginally.

Wholesale supply remains tighter than normal for this time of year. Inventory stood at 28 days at the end of October and 27 days by mid-November, slightly below the typical 30-day average. This constrained supply, combined with steady retail demand, suggests that used-vehicle availability may remain limited heading into year-end.