Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Hold Steady in September as EV Demand Bolsters Market
Wholesale used-vehicle prices remained mostly stable in early September, with the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index inching up from 207.4 to 207.5—a negligible 0.0% change from August, though still 2.2% higher year-over-year. Seasonal adjustments muted the gains, but non-adjusted prices rose 0.3% compared to last month and 2.3% annually. Historically, September prices typically dip by 0.3%, so this year’s early-month strength stands out. Cox Automotive’s Jeremy Robb noted that wholesale values continue to defy traditional depreciation patterns as retail and wholesale demand remain firm. EV sales are a key driver, with robust demand and values supported by the approaching expiration of EV tax incentives at the end of September. Wholesale supply has held steady at 25 days, slightly tighter than historical norms.
Segment trends showed mixed results: luxury vehicles and SUVs led year-over-year gains, while compact cars lagged with a sharp 4.6% decline. EVs outperformed with a 5.5% year-over-year increase, compared to just 1.4% for non-EVs. Meanwhile, Manheim Market Report data indicated modest declines for three-year-old vehicles, though at a slightly slower pace than historical averages. Sales conversion rates stayed strong at 60.3%, reflecting steady buyer demand. On the consumer side, however, sentiment weakened. The University of Michigan index fell 4.8% in early September and is down 21% year-over-year, with concerns centered on current conditions and inflation expectations. Morning Consult data echoed this downturn. Despite relatively stable gas prices and ongoing retail activity, consumer outlook remains cautious, contrasting with the resilience observed in the wholesale market.
Canada’s Auto Tariffs Reshape Vehicle Imports and Market Outlook
Canada has eased some counter-tariffs to reopen trade talks with the U.S., but tariffs on U.S.-built vehicles remain in place. Early in the year, Canadian importers stockpiled U.S. vehicles ahead of the tariffs, with March imports more than doubling January’s levels. However, after tariffs took effect on April 9, 2025, U.S. imports dropped sharply and have continued to decline, while imports from other countries—especially Mexico—rose significantly, with June values nearly doubling January’s.
September 2025 Auto Market Report: Strong Sales Amid Rising Loan Rates and Shifting Consumer Sentiment
Retail sales for both new and used vehicles continued to show strength into early September, maintaining the momentum from August despite challenges in financing. Auto loan rates rose noticeably, averaging 14.12% for used vehicles and 9.43% for new ones, while low-interest rate offerings have diminished. Vehicle supply remains constrained, with new inventory declining over the past two weeks and used supply still lower than in prior years. Pricing trends are relatively stable, with used vehicle values drifting slightly downward—2022 model retail prices fell 0.1% and wholesale prices 0.2% last week.