September 2025 Auto Market Report: Strong Sales Amid Rising Loan Rates and Shifting Consumer Sentiment
Retail sales for both new and used vehicles continued to show strength into early September, maintaining the momentum from August despite challenges in financing. Auto loan rates rose noticeably, averaging 14.12% for used vehicles and 9.43% for new ones, while low-interest rate offerings have diminished. Vehicle supply remains constrained, with new inventory declining over the past two weeks and used supply still lower than in prior years. Pricing trends are relatively stable, with used vehicle values drifting slightly downward—2022 model retail prices fell 0.1% and wholesale prices 0.2% last week.
Consumer spending has held steady, reflecting economic resilience through July and August, though sentiment dipped by 2.9% so far in September amid rising costs and uncertainty. Dealer activity has been mixed: Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book show year-over-year gains in leads but declines compared to August, while Dealer.com reported stronger used vehicle leads but weaker new ones. Credit applications rose 6% year over year on Dealertrack last week, though new loan applications trended downward. Service activity on Xtime has held mostly stable, with completed appointments down 2% from last year. Overall, the market remains resilient, though financing challenges, declining consumer sentiment, and ongoing inventory constraints may weigh on momentum moving forward.
Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Hold Steady in September as EV Demand Bolsters Market
Wholesale used-vehicle prices remained mostly stable in early September, with the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index inching up from 207.4 to 207.5—a negligible 0.0% change from August, though still 2.2% higher year-over-year. Seasonal adjustments muted the gains, but non-adjusted prices rose 0.3% compared to last month and 2.3% annually. Historically, September prices typically dip by 0.3%, so this year’s early-month strength stands out. Cox Automotive’s Jeremy Robb noted that wholesale values continue to defy traditional depreciation patterns as retail and wholesale demand remain firm. EV sales are a key driver, with robust demand and values supported by the approaching expiration of EV tax incentives at the end of September. Wholesale supply has held steady at 25 days, slightly tighter than historical norms.
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