Wholesale used-vehicle values continued to weaken in September, with the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index falling to 205.9, down 1.1% from August and 0.6% year over year. Depreciation accelerated during the third quarter as higher fuel prices, rising interest rates, and economic uncertainty pressured the market. Cox Automotive has lowered its year-end forecast to just 0.2% growth, down from its previous projection of 2%.

Larger pickups, SUVs, and diesel-powered vehicles experienced greater pricing pressure, while older, more affordable vehicles held their values better. EV values showed relative strength, increasing 4.3% year over year, although growing off-lease EV inventory could create additional pressure. Cox expects wholesale vehicle volume to increase approximately 3% in 2027 as more off-lease vehicles return to the market.

For fleets, the weaker outlook could negatively impact remarketing returns and residual value projections, particularly for larger, less fuel-efficient vehicles. Increasing off-lease supply may create further competition at auction, making replacement timing, vehicle condition, and accurate resale forecasts increasingly important heading into 2027.